Weathering the Storm: Improving Food Security Through Accurate Weather Forecasts

Weather is the single largest driver of crop losses for smallholder farmers across sub-Saharan Africa, yet most weather stations in the region do not provide reliable or sufficient data. As a result, farmers lack the information they need to manage risk, protect their livelihoods, and adapt to a changing climate. Climate change has further intensified rainfall variability and extreme weather, increasing exposure to droughts, floods, and fast-developing storms and undermining traditional farming knowledge. As weather becomes more volatile and unpredictable, small-scale farmers need timely, highly localized forecasts, early warnings for extreme events, and practical guidance that supports climate-resilient decisions: from when to plant and apply inputs to how to prepare for heavy rainfall or dry spells. Ignitia, a Swedish climate intelligence company, addresses this gap by combining physics-informed AI, proprietary data, and “virtual radar” technology to predict extreme weather in real time and deliver hyper-local tropical weather forecasts and climate risk insights in data-scarce regions. Ignitia delivers its forecasts and alerts via SMS to more than three million subscribers, maintaining a 97 percent retention rate. For as little as $0.04 per message, farmers receive actionable weather information that informs critical decisions throughout the growing season, helping reduce losses, improve yields, and strengthen resilience to climate shocks. With support from the DIV Fund and other partners, Ignitia tested and refined scalable business models across multiple geographies. Through the project ignitia piloted and expanded its business-to-business-to-consumer (B2B2C) model in Nigeria, working with agribusinesses, input providers and microfinance institutions, improving input loan recovery rates, yields and farmer income across projects. Ignitia also expanded its direct-to-farmer services in Burkina Faso and Côte d’Ivoire through a partnership with Orange, reaching an additional 400,000 farmers with weather forecasts and agronomic advice in local languages. The project also supported a randomized controlled trial in Ghana led by Innovations for Poverty Action, in collaboration with researchers from Northwestern University, to rigorously assess impacts on farmer practices, yields, incomes, and resilience.